Ukraine Agreement Was Only a Start, Activists and Analysts Say

The agreement brokered by European leaders and signed by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych Feb. 21 was not enough to placate the Ukrainian public after over 80 people were killed, activists and analysts told a packed conference room at Central European University (CEU) the same day. Since the roundtable discussion, two of the protesters’ major demands have been met: former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been released from prison and appeared on Independence Square, known as Maidan, or Euro-Maidan, and the Parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office.

“Euro-Maidan is a revolution of dignity,” said Kateryna Kruk, an activist who spent months living on the Maidan, where she tweeted about developments in the square. “Euro-Maidan is not just about European values, about changing the government, it’s about survival. We want a better life for our families, a president who doesn’t have the blood of our people on his hands.”


Former Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Balazs, Director of CEU's Center for European Enlargement Studies. Photo: CEU/Daniel Vegel.

Former Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Balazs, director of CEU’s Center for European Enlargement Studies, which hosted the event, called the developments of Feb. 21 encouraging,  but merely first steps on a long road in a large country suspended between Europe and Russia.

“The EU has shown taken action, shown unity and engaged in a solution,” Balazs said. “Of course we could see Russia showing its teeth. The main battle is taking place within Ukraine and the solution must be done within Ukraine.”

Andras Racz, assistant professor in the Department of International Studies at Pazmany Peter University and researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, outlined the broader geopolitical background of the Ukrainian situation.

“The EU doesn’t want to compete, but the problem is that Russia does,” he said. “Russia has a 19th-century, zero-sum game kind of thinking.”


Andras Racz of Pazmany Peter University and the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Photo: CEU/Daniel Vegel.

Russia has “immediately usable short term sticks” such as blocking all imports from Ukraine or raising gas prices, Racz said. The EU can implement a visa ban, or trade sanctions, but these do not have immediate effect. Nevertheless, in this case, Russia miscalculated. Threats like these, and the carrot of $15 billion in credit, were attractive to Yanukovych, but not enough to placate the Ukrainian public, Racz said.

Insiders say Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Yanukovych with an import ban, a block on Ukrainian suppliers, and high gas prices, according to Laszlo Poti, senior research fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Russia isn't looking to annex part of a divided Ukraine - it has no territorial ambitions per se, Poti said.


Laszlo Poti, Senior Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. Photo: CEU/Daniel Vegel.

"What Russia wants is political and economic control, nothing less," he said.

The killing of over 80 protesters turned the people irrevocably against Yanukovich, and prompted European politicians to quickly broker an agreement. Friday’s agreement included concessions by Yanukovych, including a commitment to forming a coalition government and reining in presidential powers, but fell short of a resignation.


Iryna Bekeshkina, director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation. Photo: CEU/Daniel Vegel.

The protests, which began last fall with calls for Yanukovych to choose Europe, became more and more radical as the months went by, according to Iryna Bekeshkina, director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, who polled protesters throughout the Maidan. One theme remained, she said.

“Europe was a kind of a dream about better life, the rule of law, many positive things. Yanukovych refused this dream.”