There Will Be Social Collapse in Eastern Ukraine, Says Miller

After months of deadly violence, Ukraine is struggling to rebuild itself while still being at the center of a tug of war between East and West. CEU's Department of History sponsored a round-table discussion “Perspectives on Nation- and State-Building in Ukraine” to look at these seemingly irreconcilable differences and to analyze ways the struggling nation can rebuild.

Volodymyr Kulyk, head research fellow at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine's Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies, first addressed the issue of Crimea and how easy it was for Putin to re-annex the territory.

“It's obvious that the state is inadequate if it can't defend its people and itself,” Kulyk said. “It's a legacy of previous regimes. Crimea went so easily because it was in the first few days of the new regime that was facing big obstacles: lack of supply and professionalism, for example. It's a result of the corruption and ineffectiveness of previous regimes.”


Volodymyr Kulyk, head research fellow at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine's Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies spoke about the crises in Ukraine. Image credit: CEU/Daniel Vegel

Kulyk noted that mainstream Ukrainian media is dominated by Russian markets, so the pre-Crimea re-annexation prevailing discourse was always a pro-Russia, “strategic brotherhood” narrative.

“Russia was not perceived as a threat by the majority of Ukrainian elites. But they were rudely awakened – it was a threat,” Kulyk said. “Of course it's a problem of state-building; it was built ineffectively because it wasn't equipped to deal with this threat and the dominant narrative in Ukrainian public discourse focused on commonality.”

The tides are now turning in light of Crimea, although Russia, according to Kulyk, has manufactured reasons for their presence. Recent pro-Russian demonstrations in the eastern part of Ukraine have been populated with Russian citizens bussed in for the purpose of demonstrating, he said. Russia is arguing that there is discrimination against Russian speakers which their government cannot allow. “It's clear that Russia is not interested in protecting the stability and democracy of Russian speakers in Ukraine. They are interested in destabilization to justify intervention.”


CEU Visiting Professor Alexei Miller detailed critical moments when things began to go wrong in Ukraine. Image credit: CEU/Daniel Vegel

CEU Visiting Professor of History Alexei Miller noted that Ukraine has three populations, not two. There are Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians and Russian-speaking Russians, but also Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Propagandists used these linguistic differences to pit groups against one another and to play on existing fears from the 2004/2005 Orange Revolution, he noted. Showing a map of Ukraine, Miller indicated that 62 of those who died in the Maidan protests were from western Ukraine, a majority Ukrainian-speaking region. The majority of those who were killed were fighting for democracy on the Maidan.

“Ukrainian TV featured pictures of an unarmed member of the security force and a suspected ally of Yanukovich being beaten by Maidan participants – people being put on their knees and made to ask for mercy,” Miller said. “When you see such pictures in the East and you are Russian or linked to Russia...it means that the East of the country had a reason to see the victory of Maidan as the victory of a certain part of Ukraine – the West of Ukraine, the pro-Ukrainian/pro-EU side.”

Miller also detailed “several key moments when things went very wrong for Ukraine.” The first, he said, was when the EU delegated leadership in the eastern partnership to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. “This is Russia's sphere of influence and you are asking for trouble,” Miller said.

In October 2013, Putin invited Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to Russia, where the latter suggested trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the EU. The EU rejected the talks and again asked Yanukoych to sign their proposed Association Agreement which he refused to do, saying he would sign at a later time once economic issues and strategic partnership agreements (with Russia) were ironed out. In February 2014 – after months of lethal protests – Sikorski and Bildt negotiated a deal that would reduce Yanukovych's power and force him out of office by the end of 2014. The following day, the agreement was destroyed by the Maidan, Yanukovych fled, and a new regime took over.

“We have to keep in mind that, in Ukraine, there was not a single government which was based on a coalition of East/West,” Miller said. “Some people born in the East are not seen as representatives of the East. This new government, again, is very much seen as representative of the West. How deep is this crisis? How deep is the lack of understanding? How deep is the lunatic behavior of this government? Two months after the government is in place and not a single leader has visited eastern Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, eastern Ukrainians are enduring major hardships. Figures were released recently that show the average income of Ukrainians is slightly above 2,000 USD per year, Miller noted.

“This population is now going to suffer from immense economic pain,” Miller said. “Prices for energy go up, taxes go up, all construction has stopped. Two million people will be affected by layoffs. There will be social collapse in eastern Ukraine.”

The April 1 talk was chaired by Aziz Al-Azmeh, CEU university professor of history and medieval studies with discussion led by Alfred J. Rieber, CEU university professor of history (emeritus), and Balazs Trencsenyi, CEU associate professor of history and co-director of Pasts, Inc. Center for Historical Studies.