New research by CEU Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy Professor Aleh Cherp with authors Vadim Vinichenko, Jale Tosun, Joel A. Gorrdon and Jessica Jewell, addresses how climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power. The article titled, “National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets” was published on July 19 in Nature Energy.
Acknowledging that scholars disagree on how such growth compares with historical trends, the research fits growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. Findings suggest that replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.
Also this summer, an article published on August 4 in Nature Energy titled “Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios” articulates research contributed by CEU Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy Professor Diana Urge-Vorsatz with authors Jason Hickel, Paul Brockway, Giorgos Kallis, Lorenz Keysser, Manfred Lenzen, Aljosa Slamerrsak and Julia Steinberger.
The article addresses growth as an unquestioned norm in the established climate mitigation scenarios which assume continued economic growth in all countries. With Paris Agreement targets betting on speculative technological change, the research asserts that post-growth approaches may make it easier to achieve rapid mitigation while improving social outcomes, and should be explored by climate modelers.