Semeniy Puts Ukrainian Crisis in International Perspective

Oleksiy Semeniy, director of the Institute for Global Transformations in Kyiv guided the audience through the domestic and international events of 2013-14 that triggered the state of war in Ukraine in his lecture on November 3.

In his opening remarks, Director of the Center for European Enlargement Studies at CEU Peter Balazs warned that Ukraine needs both internal and external stability, and has to learn to manage ethnic diversity within its borders. Building closer relationships with the international community can help Ukraine achieve these goals, he suggested. Even Ukraine’s geopolitical situation calls for transborder communication, Balazs added before giving the floor to Oleksiy Semeniy.

Semeniy started his talk with the most important milestones that triggered the conflict, starting with the events at the end of November 2013 through the “mini war in the center of Kyiv” in mid-February 2014 to the annexation of Crimea by Russia. “Putin didn’t want to do anything during the Sochi Olympics, so Crimea came after the Games,” Semeniy noted. On February 27-28 Russian special forces seized governmental buildings in Crimea and on March 18 Putin signed a bill to “regain Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia.”

Touching on the Donbass region, Semeniy drew up the timeline of the escalating conflict from April 7, the first wave of occupying official buildings through July 17, when Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down to today, when opposing forces are fearing the coming winter.


Oleksiy Semeniy, director of the Institute for Global Transformations in Kyiv and Peter Balazs, director of the Center for European Enlargement Studies at CEU Photo: CEU/Daniel Vegel

Having listed the international triggers of the conflict in the country, Semeniy discussed why Ukraine is so important for Russia. “If Ukraine goes the wrong way, it’ll change the Russian way, too,” he quoted the Russian standpoint. Drawing up historic parallels to the relationship between Russia and Ukraine since the USSR split, Semeniy mentioned Germany and the two Koreas as examples of unification and split between countries. The Russia-Ukraine dynamics have changed from non-recognition to seeking ways to “push through” their own ways, he argued.

Discussing the key global stakeholders and their position, Semeniy first mentioned the United States’ lack of direct involvement. Its ambivalent standpoint to both the EU and Russia is due to the region’s close links to the Middle East and it previous pivotal role to Asia, he argued. On the other hand, Russia is directly involved in the conflict, due to the country’s post-soviet legacy, having revanchist figures in power, its ambitions to be a separate civilization between EU and Asia, and the idea of Slavic unity or “Russkiy mir” (Russian peace). But, Semeniy warned, Russia’s real aim is that everything, with the exception of Crimea, is negotiated.

 The European Union is directly affected by the Ukrainina crisis, Semeniy pointed out, however, it main response has only been manifested in sanctions against Russia. In contrast, China seems to be the “total winner” of the crisis. The country has only issued cautious statements, as although Russia is a minor partner between the U.S. and China, it’s also regarded as a “troublemaker.” Also, China has to take into consideration the role of Russia and Ukraine in its Silk Road strategy.

In conclusion, Semeniy outlined four possible future scenarios, including cold war, cold peace, a neither-war-nor-peace scenario, and a stage somewhere between “good old” real politik and smart-soft power, and suggested the latter as the most probable outcome.

The talk was followed by a lively Q&A session.

Oleksiy Semeniy received his master’s degree with distinction in 2000 from the Institute of International Relations at Shevchenko National University. In 2004, he received a doctorate from Wilhelms Westfalia University of Muenster after writing his doctoral thesis “Role of Germany in EU-Enlargement to the East.” Semeniy then worked in the foreign policy department of the presidential administration of Ukraine, dealing with general issues of foreign and security policy and Ukraine’s relations with Germany. In 2008 he entered the non-governmental sector as an independent expert on foreign and security policy problems. From 2011 to 2012, Semeniy studied at Carl Friedrich Goerdeler-Kolleg for Good Governance. Since January 2012, he has led the Institute of Global Transformations. He is a member of several international expert groups dealing with foreign and security policy issues.